MCS | Bitcoin Bull is Back!?

MCS | Bitcoin Bull is Back!?


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After recovering from the main psychological support level of $30,000 on July 21st, the Bitcoin price quickly broke above the key resistance level of $36,000. The current short-term price rise started at the B-Word conference. Tesla's Elon Musk, Twitter's Jack Dorsey, and Ark Invest's Cathy Wood, participated as speakers and made positive comments about Bitcoin. Meanwhile, as leading media reported that Amazon would allow Bitcoin payments within the year, the Bitcoin price has quickly surpassed $40,000. However, right after Amazon officially denied accepting bitcoin payments, and the Bitcoin price was pushed back to $37,000.

After recovering $30,000, there are several possible scenarios for why it rose to $40,000 in an instant. The first is the optimistic opinions on Bitcoins by the high-tier influencers during the B-Word Conference. Although it is just a rumor, the misinformation news on Amazon introducing Bitcoin payment has contributed to the rise in Bitcoin price.

Secondly, this positive increase is due to the short squeeze phenomenon mentioned by Yahoo Finance. Due to institutional market bearish theories such as 'Bitcoin bottoming out at $10,000' by Guggenheim Investment Co., Ltd. Scott Minard, JP Morgan's prediction on Bitcoin bear market, and the cryptocurrency regulation issues in each country, Bitcoin price continue to decline after reaching its peak at $65,000. As a result, the bear market continues with no exciting news, and the selling force betting on price declines continued to increase. However, as Bitcoin bottomed out and started to rise, a short squeeze occurred in which the selling party bought Bitcoin to reduce losses, which seems to have added momentum to the current Bitcoin price rise.

Thirdly, the rise is driven by institutional investor buying. While Bitcoin continues to fall in price through various adverse events, well-known institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have concentrated on constructing multiple financial products and acquiring licenses related to Bitcoin. In the case of the FTX exchange, it has raised approximately $900 million in funding from more than 60 investors, and its enterprise value is currently at $18 billion. It seems that institutions aiming to enter the market are putting their funds into Bitcoin Spot and Trust market, and the rationale is that Bitcoin holdings on each exchange are hitting an all-time low. A large amount of Bitcoin outflow to wallets outside the exchange seems to support the institutional purchase.

The short-term Bitcoin price rise can be summarized into three factors—the absence of negative aspects, individual expectations, and institutional investors' movements. Short-term Bitcoin price resistance can be seen to be between 41K and 42K, and a volatile market is expected for the time being.

*Only for reference and not a financial advice

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