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Jerome Powell's speech is scheduled for 2 pm (UTC). His speech topic planned during the Jackson Hole Symposium is the 'economic outlook', and cryptocurrency investors, as well as anyone looking at the stock market, are paying great attention to this speech.
Jackson Hole is located near Kansas City, USA. The annual event is held in August every year. This is an important symposium where central governors, finance ministers, and economists from each country come together to determine financial policies that have an impact on the global economy. Of course, the most influential person in this group is Jerome Powell, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve.
Could this speech be the cause? Recently, along with Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies linked to DeFi projects are facing a correction. It is safe to say that this is a situation where many traders are saving their strength and monitoring the market that could fluctuate rapidly ahead of Jerome Powell's speech.
The most notable thing in the speech will be the mention of tapering (reduction of asset purchases). Considering Jerome Powell's recent stance so far, it seems reasonable to anticipate him mentioning tapering this time around. However, the point of observation here is how specific it will be even if it is mentioned. In other words, whether there is sufficient justification and consensus for execution, and whether a specific execution time is mentioned is something that all traders should listen to.
According to many analysts, what Jerome Powell is most emphasizing is the unemployment rate. In the US, employment figures are expected to be significantly higher, driven by an increase of 1 million monthly jobs over the past two months. This would increase the likelihood that the Fed would see it as progress in a labor market, and could be seen as a factor in accelerating monetary policy.
But, did you know that this year's Jackson Hole Symposium will be held online?
In other words, this suggests how seriously the symposium representatives and participants are taking the COVID-19 delta variant. Therefore, experts are also predicting that the market is likely to fluctuate for a short time as the Fed refrains from excessive tapering.
Let's take a look at past data. Did the last tapering period really have an impact on Bitcoin?
As you can see in the graph below, during the tapering period, the actual Bitcoin price showed little movement or was not affected at all.
A lot of people are worried about the scheduled speech. As you can see above, it is difficult to see that the tapering actually had a significant impact. Nevertheless, we still cannot be certain since we cannot predict the future. I think that taking the time to closely observe and analyze the market situation is the right trading mindset in the management of valuable assets.
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